What does the future hold for social networking? By definition, social networking is the interaction between a group of people who share a common interest. Before the internet evolved, we still participated in some form of social networking. It is human nature to want to connect with others whom we share something in common with.

The Rise of Social Networking

The early beginnings of online social networking began in the late 1990’s. In 2002, social networking started to gain momentum with the launch of Friendster and followed by MySpace and LinkedIn in 2003. Facebook launched in 2004 and remained a university-only network for two years until it opened to the general public in 2006. Twitter also launched its micro-blogging platform in 2006.

In the last few years, social networking has become a global phenomenon with millions of people logging on everyday to engage in social networks. With approximately 1.5 billion members worldwide, social networking has become more popular than e-mail according to Nielsen Online’s latest research.

Social Networking in the Present

Last month, MySpace decided to cut 30% of its existing staff in an attempt to become more efficient as its rival Facebook officially caught up to MySpace in monthly U.S. visitors for the first time. MySpace cut approximately 420 jobs, leaving them with 1,000 U.S. staff members compared to Facebook’s 850 staff members employed worldwide.

As MySpace users have stagnated at 125 million worldwide users, Facebook reported 200 million users with usage doubling over the last year. MySpace’s ad revenue remains higher with $605 million in global ads last year, but is expected to shrink compared to Facebook’s $205 million ad revenue that is expected to continue growing.

And we can’t forget to mention Twitter, the fastest growing social network with 1444% growth over last year according to the Nielsen Company’s ratings.

So What Does This All Really Mean?

Social networks can grow and spread like wildfire, but they can also be unpredictable and it’s not too long before they are “put out” and another one develops and begins to spread. Will social networking continue to be as popular as it is now or is it a temporary trend that will fall just as quickly as it rose?

The fact of the matter is that people constantly change their minds. The challenge for social networking sites will be the constant struggle to figure out what people want and leveraging that against making money off it.

If the existing social networks fail to stay on top on what’s new and interesting that online users are looking for, the original MySpace and Facebook generation will just move on to the next best thing. Facebook may have lost its niche for some as it started out as a college-only network. When it went public in 2007, it has since become a more “mature” Facebook that some college students have become discontent with.

The same goes for MySpace, which started out as a site for teenagers and subcultures and has become so pervasive that people of all ages are using it now. Its deviation from a focus on youth culture to instead become inclusive of the masses may cause the original MySpace generation to find somewhere else to “hang” underground where their parents, teachers and/or supervisors cannot join in on the conversation.

As we continue to experience a fundamental shift in the way we communicate with one another, only time will tell if social networking sites like MySpace, Facebook and Twitter will survive. If the downsizing of MySpace is any indication, other social networks should take notice and heed its warning.

What do the experts have to say?

Here is what a few industry experts are predicting will happen this year and beyond:

Chris Brogan: President of New Marketing Labs, a new media marketing agency

“2009 sees a few things: site mergers/acquisitions for some of the weaker social network platforms, and a stronger push towards identity portability and friend (social graph) portability. We love our social networks, but why should I suddenly develop amnesia when you and I join a new one? It should know we're friends and treat us accordingly.”

Mary Hodder: Founder of Dabble.com and VP of Product Development, Apisphere

“The future of social media is user's owning their data, deciding who to send it to. Look for more companies that currently host the user's identity to have less control over that, as things like Open ID take over and more companies try to compete by giving users more control over themselves. Look for ways users can own their own data, and companies that might offer that, sort of like a personal information bank. The changes may seem subtle but I think we'll see companies now, like Facebook, who try to be everything to you: your bank account for info, your identity, your tools for publishing, and your bar/restaurant for socializing, having to give up some of those roles or hold them less powerfully. And I don't think it's natural for one company to hold all that power. It leaves you with very little control over your online self.

Of course, Facebook will fight this to the last, so they won't be the first to give up some of this control. Others will and eventually to compete Facebook will follow. But they are the great example of the problem.”

Richard Yoo: Founder of Hush Labs and former CEO of Rackspace Hosting

“I'm not sure that things will evolve the way people have seen in the past. I predict that it'll mostly be about trying to figure out what users really want and what they find most important then fine-tuning things based on that feedback. The pace of evolution may really slow down by comparison, but the user experience will be far better.

We'll also see a shakedown of Web 2.0 companies - some will survive, but many will just shut down. The ones that survive will have figured out a revenue model, or are simply critical to their user base's day-to-day lives.”

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